Jonathan Brun

On Trump and Revolution

Rome survived Caligula. Caligula, the roman emperor who named a horse senator, organized mass orgies and committed numerous atrocities and ruled over Rome from 37 AD to 41 AD. Rome, being a large and powerful empire with a bureaucratic system, survived and even grew under Caligula’s divine leadership. Similarly, America will continue to grow with Trump in power. The American Presidency, as Elon Musk said, is a captain-ship of a very large vessel with a small rudder. The impact of the president is completely blown out of proportion by the media. A good or a bad president has much smaller impact on American society than most think.

There has been more ink shed on Trump than perhaps on any other politician. I recognize the irony of my publication of year another blog post on the subject. Yet, his victory is a massive signal to those of use who are far removed from the reality of many blue and white collar workers. My brother lives in London and he was flabbergasted by Brexit. He and I had no clue of the levels of anger in the US or the UK that sent both countries down a path led by isolationist and nationalistic leads with dubious track records as members of the human race. People seem so fed up with the lack of progress by the establishment that they will overlook personal faults and outright lies. This is not the first time, nor will it be the last time that a person rises to power in an unexpected way. For a more in-depth analysis of the worldwide rise of populists and the actual electoral strategy of Donald Trump take a look at HyperNormalization by British documentarian, Adam Curtis.

An American colleague once told be a story. A private equity company bought a manufacturing company. The investors came out from New York to the plant and asked the workers to build a stage outside the factory for a big announcement. The staff built a big wooden stage, with a podium, and a staircase. The investors asked them to gather all the employees for an announcement. With the hundreds of staff gathered, the investors got up on the stage and promptly announced that the factory was being moved to Mexico and they were all fired.

This story is not uncommon. Part of the fault is our own, we want cheap products. Our societal dictate that the all powerful consumer must have a cheaper iPhone, a cheaper car, or a cheaper flight. Don’t get me wrong, who wants to spend more than they have to? But, the consequence of these moves to low cost countries is now truly hitting home. The people who worked at these factories, all across America, Canada and other developed countries are revolting. People who once had good unionized job with a good pension and a path to a home and two cars is working as a greater at Wal-Mart. Not only has this happened to line workers at a factory, it has happened to middle managers, executives and top earners who previously had a good quality of life and a path to success for their children. People are angry and rightfully so.

Some commentators said that Trump’s victory was Whitelash against progress on social and racial progress. They say that the vote for Trump was a vote against a black president and black lives matter. There is no doubt that the US is a very racist place, both in the north and the south. You can simply read books such as Between the World and Me, A Case for Reparations or The Arc of Justice to see how racism is very deeply embedded in US society (and most others too). The presidency tends to cycle between the left and the right, which is not surprising. One team wins, the other adjusts and comes back. Back and forth we go. The arc of history is long and may bend towards justice, but it is not straight. Southern pro-slavery president Hayes was a response to Lincoln and emancipation. Nixon was a response to Lindon B. Johnson and the Voting Rights Act and Trump is a response to Obama. However, I think that Trump was a response to the lack of change Obama brought, not the actual change that did occur. Obama did not get much done for black Americans, did not create high paying jobs or reduce the American deficit, or improve government services substantially. Many people who voted for the Hope of Obama, voted for the Greatness of Trump. People want progress and they will go where that is offered with honesty. Clinton represented nothing – just more of the same.

Trump, for all his numerous faults, really believes in himself and he makes a compelling case. I remember an interview during the primaries on Fox News where Trump really made an impact, he is an expert communicator – much like George W. Bush. He just speaks in a different tongue that the educated class, one that appeals to a significant portion of the US population who had to suffer through the US public school system. This video compilation, selectively chosen, certainly makes Trump look great and revolutionary.

Personally I am a horrible predictor of politics. I thought Clinton would win, that Trudeau had no chance and that George W. Bush would never win in 2004. So, my opinion is not exactly worth much. Will Trump be able to execute on his promises, such as his 100 day plan, unlikely. Congress, despite being Republican, is fundamentally pro-big business due to campaign finance laws. Corporations might bite on the tax cuts, the oil and gas exploration and other items, but it will be simply amazing if Congress goes along with term limits (an idea I actually agree with) or the destruction of NAFTA. I am sure they will work something out.

With Brexit and Trump, one thing has become clear. Our societies have been cleaved in two – educated urbanites working in open-space offices with espresso machines (I plead guilty!) and a working class in lousy jobs, diminishing purchasing power and no prospect of measurable improvement. In many ways, this actually reflects the natural tendency of capitalist societies and has been thoroughly documented in Picketty’s book, Capital in the 21st Century. His research shows that the period after WW2 was an exception and what Trump supporters or Brits or even the French refer to as the 30 glorious years after the war, was a historical anomaly that was only possible due to the massive destruction of capital during the war and very high tax rates.

As soon as capital can earn money faster than a worker can, society dives back into a world of the haves and have-notes where it is nearly impossible to cross the chasm between the two. Can we go back in time to the boom years of the 50s- late 70s. Yes, it is possible, but it would take a worldwide war on the accumulation of capital at the top and a massive redistribution or quantitative easing for the people along with a revolution in the electoral system and a new division of power. How likely is that to happen without war? Not likely, but not impossible.

*************

Also, this Munk Debate on the rise of Trump is pretty good.

Shifting the Narrative on Wealth, the State and Deserving People

In the excellent talk below, Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s former Finance Minister lays out the compelling case for basic income. One of his key points, which basic income advocates should take to heart is the imperative to shift our social narrative on work, labour and the creation of wealth.

Yanis explains how we currently view the State and the private market as separate entities, when in fact they are one and the same. Without one, you cannot have the other. To convince people that a basic income is the logical and ethical thing for society to do, we must reframe the discussion as a dividend for the members of a society that produces wealth. There is no such thing as private wealth. All wealth is built upon the contributions of others – past and present. Without the invention of the internet and computers, I would not have my current job or company and without government, the internet would not exist – nor would the other private companies whose technology we use. Whether we like it or not, all wealth is communal. This point is also convincingly argued in Peter Barnes book, With Liberty and Dividend’s for All. If all wealth is created communally, then its benefits (or profits) should be distibuted to the community that created it. That is how dividend’s work for shareholder’s in a company and that is how a basic income could work.

Basic income advocates must also confront the other hard truth about a basic income: it is given to all and there are no deserving and undeserving members of a society. Not only is there no easy way to determine deserving vs. undeserving people, the very concept of designating some as deserving creates a power structure where bureaucrats can determine who is helped and who is not. I remember seeing a few years ago, in Toronto, a fantastic ad about why a punk on the street could not get a job. The ad was between the subway lines and about 10 ft from the viewer. It read, “Why can’t street kids get a life?” followed by large block of small text that could not be read from a distance, but presumably has a complex explanation, followed by “That’s why.” Life is complicated. A basic income would be a dividend for all members of a society to improve their chances in life – all while removing some of the arbitrary power government currently has.

Lastly, Vanis makes an excellent point that the wealthy already receive dividends and their children or relatives who did not earn the wealth are not terribly deserving of those dividends. Why does Paris Hilton deserve a dividend, but a kid from a working class family does not deserve one? In fact, both of them should have a dividend in the form of a Basic Income. I put this argument and others to a skeptical earner of a dividend, Stephen Bronfman who inherited money from his father’s business successes. Though he was unconvinced the beginning of the talk, he came around to being open to the idea by the end and I hope to fully convince him soon.

The time for basic income is coming, but to get us there we will need to shift the narrative we tell each other and our children about the origins of wealth and who deserves it. Wealth can only be created if there is a state and the rule of law and the more wealth we inherit, as a society or as an individual, the more wealth we can create. A society with inventions and discoveries to work off of, will create more wealth than a primitive society starting from scratch. Without calculus or antibiotics, today’s civilization cannot exist. A basic income is the fairest and simplest mechanism for us to create wealth while ensuring everyone can fully participate in society and reach their full potential.

On another note, Yanis Varoufakis book on the EU and the Greek crisis is fantastic : And the Weak shall Suffer what they must?. It provides clear (if opinionated) economic insights into the challenges of international monetary systems and the fundamental contradiction of a common currency between export nations (i.e. Germany) and import nations (i.e Italy). Canada overcame this challenge of export provinces and import provinces with a strong redistribution system between the provinces called ‘Equalization Payments‘. Québec has received about 5 billion dollars in annual transfers for the past decade, helping avoid the social and economic collapse as we see in Greece today. If you are interested in the history of the gold standard, Bretton Woods and the current impasse in the EU, the book is well worth the read. Also see his discussion with Chomsky on this topic and others.

[:en]TEDxQuébec – Un revenu de base pour tous[:]

[:en][:]

[:en]On Haiti and Freedom[:]

[:en]

Haitians are a proud people and for good reason. They were the first colony to free themselves from slavery and overthrow a ruling class. The revolution, set off in part by the French Revolution, led to a bloody battle and punishing reprisals from European nations. Some two hundred years ago, one of my ancestors, Philibert Fressinet was a commanding officer in an invasion force sent to Haiti by Napoleon in the worlds then largest naval fleet to attempt to recapture the wealthy colony of Saint-Dominique (now Haiti) and re-instate slavery. In some ways, I wanted to go Haiti to absolve my ancestors sins and to see for myself what a revolutionary colony looks like. It’s not pretty.

I have travelled to poor places before – Ethiopia, rural China, Mongolia and others – but Haiti in 2015 is truly a place in desperate need of massive assistance. The Haitians fight for liberation started in 1791 and allowed them to free themselves from the bonds of slavery, but it left them in a political quagmire that lasts to this day. Walking through the streets of Port-au-Prince or smaller cities you see abject poverty nearly everywhere, yet you also see tremendous pride in the faces of everyday citizens. This fascinating contrast is difficult to explain. The expressions on their faces are different from any other non-white people I have met. Nearly all people of colour around the world were subject to colonialism at some point in time – everyone from the aboriginals in Canada to the people of Africa and Asia. When I visited Tanzania many people did not look you in the eye, their head and eyes turned downward upon sight of a white person as if to say they were subjugated. I would claim that this is even true in the United States with African Americans. An ingrained inferiority complex beaten into certain peoples takes generations to root out of a society. Some mouvements can accomplish the feat of instilling pride in a oppressed people and one of the most recent attempts was the Black Panthers, who led a fight for equal rights and dignity in the 1970s before imploding due to FBI sabotage and infighting. They had a similar image of pride in their eyes.

The leader of the Haitian uprisings, Toussaint l’Ouverture perhaps explained it best when he stated that he planned

“to cease to live before gratitude dies in my heart, before I cease to be faithful to France and to my duty, before the god of liberty is profaned and sullied by the liberticides, before they can snatch from my hands that sword, those arms, which France confided to me for the defence of its rights and those of humanity, for the triumph of liberty and equality.”

The Haitian people, if anything, are about freedom – freedom of spirit and of body. You can see this passion and righteous freedom in their eyes like I have not seen in may other people, except those of the ruling classes in other countries.

Haiti is tiny and mountainous an has over 10.32 million people who congregate in the valleys and near the water, making towns and countryside incredibly dense. The deforestation and its impacts on agriculture and sustainability are well documented in book such as Collapse by Jared Diamond. Simply flying over the country you can see the demarcation with the Dominican Republic, which has remained forested thanks to strictly enforced laws. All this to say that Haiti has a serious and not easily remedied problem: too many people and not enough land and resources.

The second main issue I could see in Haiti is that anyone with either an education or a bit of wealth leaves the country. This emigration empties of the country of a potential middle class. After the revolution some of its leaders got greedy and established a ruling elite not dissimilar to other central and Latin American countries. One leader, Henri Christophe ruled the north and even thought it was a good idea to reproduce, in exacting detail down to the specific titles, the aristocratic structure of Europe. This ruling elite has continued to exist until today and they seem to have little interest in developing the country. Much of the the aid money sent to Haiti often ends up in their hands. Without an educated middle class to counter the power of an elite, it becomes very difficult to establish the rule of law and build up an economy.

Third, foreign intervention is not new to Haiti. After the 1791 revolution and under threat of invasion, reparations estimated at 20 billion 2015 dollars were paid by Haiti to France for loss of property including Slaves. Successive interventions occurred over the years up to the American invasion in 1915. Today, foreign intervention is more subtle, but it is a major influencing factor on the politics and opportunity for the Haitian people. From controversial deals that prevent the application of Haitian law in a section of the North Coast and potentially an island Carnival Cruises has leased out land for foreign tourists to enjoy. The massive investments by foreign embassies, aid organizations and other non-profit groups has an impact on the relationships between foreigners and Haitians and between Haitians themselves. These investments, often done behind back-doors, makes it challenging for an economy to be built as Haitians will often use aid money to buy products from China or the Dominican Republic instead of building factories for their own production. In short, a system of dependency has been created that is sadly aligned with some of the interests of the ruling elite and certain foreign entities.

It would be nice to say that I am optimistic for Haiti, but I fear I cannot be. With no president and increasing violence, Haiti seems to be in a situation that cannot easily be corrected. There are so many problems that any realistic solution would need to involve the relocation of millions of people, the investment of billions of dollars and the return of educated émigrés. If there is one thing Haiti undeniably has it is honour and pride in their remarkable revolution that is well documented in C.L.R. James book, The Black Jacobins. It would be a great victory to see Haiti prosper, but if there is any lesson to be learned from them, it is that one should not understate the power of foreign countries, corrupt elites and revolutionary fever.[:]

[:en]Four Ideas to Change the World[:]

[:en]Time passes by so fast, I have been busy at Nimonik and had little time to write about the things I see in this crazy world. Luckily, NASA just announced the discovery of a 0.98 similar planet, so we can have a back-up planet if we do not sort out issues here. We will however need some form of traveling device near the speed of light to get there, or faster. Elon Musk? If Elon cannot solve it, here are four ideas that I am really passionate about these days and that I think can change society for the better. Read on about them if you can, I hope to elaborate in more detail in the near(ish) future.

1. Liquid Feedback – A system to make decision making democratic and fluid.
2. Rolling Jubilee – debt annulment for medical debt or the creation of a debtors union to free people from quasi-debtors jail. Don’t forget to read the great 5,000 years of debt.
3. Basic Income – Distribution of common wealth (land tax, spectrum charges, pollution charges) to all citizens on an equal basis. Great book here on Citizen dividends, another term for basic income.
4. A Tax on Capital – reduce the influence of capital in society and encourages people to invest their money in active assets that produce goods and services, as opposed to become rentiers living off the work of others. Read Pikettys Capital in the 21st century, best book in a long, long time.

[:]