Jonathan Brun

Horoscopes – Fact, Fiction, Who Cares

Why do people read their horoscopes? Comfort? Motivation? Is it dependent on personality types?

Recently I watched A Brave New World, based on the book by the same name written by Aldous Huxley in 1932. The (not so fictional) futuristic world has castes based on natural aptitudes, Alphas – the intelligent independent leaders, betas – the diligent workers and gammas, the labourers…

The categorization is done based on genetics and scarily enough, it fits with modern studies done by pioneer Jarome Kagan and the even more recent book by Judith Harris, “The Nurture Assumption”.

Today, such categorizations of personality types are common practice in HR offices. They help identify leaders, workers and thinkers. In a broad sense, they work.

So, is a specific type of person more likely to consult and believe in the daily horoscope? The book stumbling on happiness by Dan Gilbert (previously mentioned in this post) , which is largely based on the psycology of Danny Kahneman, people are shown to be irrational decision makers.

Decisions are made on a set of emotional reactions we have hard wired into us and some basic analysis of the situations. Variables in decisions (i.e. having more than one choice, or having the ability to go back on choices) leads all people (not a specific personality type) to be unhappy with their decision.

Emotions play a much greater importance in decision making than analytical thought. Therefore, perhaps horoscopes are efficient motivation tools BECAUSE they use emotions as the trigger for decisions, and don’t try to fight our natural tendancies.

In fact, one of the few studies on horoscopes states that they use:

Anxiety-generating threats were alternated with irrational promises of gain, an implied high socioeconomic status was juxtaposed against the ultimate dependence of the readers on forces beyond their control, and constant exhortations to extraverted adjustment were combined with recommendations to reject one’s past. The columns thereby appeared to be designed to generate dependence, helplessness, and blind obedience to authority in their consumers.

This falls into line with what makes people happy or satisfied with their decisions. The general combination of off-loading responsibility onto someone or something else and a false sense of empowerment lead to decision making. Humans, unlike deer, act when they are caught in the headlights.

So, if horoscopes make you happy, go for it, but try to use them to good ends – wait, that would be a rational decision on an emotional foundation!

Casualties of Stupidity

Sad, but good article on the dead children of Palestine in the year 5767

Also came across an article about a beautiful draft dodger in Israel. Despite what we see on the news, less wars are ocuring, and when they do, they are small. More and more people are seeing the futility of war.

No good wars, No just wars, just shades of gray wars. Every conflict can be prevented. Spare me the stupid argument of the appeasement of Hitler. In my view, WWI and WWII are essentially the same war with an interlude of technological development. If the treaty of Versailles (1919) had been properly formulated (I am not referring to reparations), WWII could have been avoided. (See Margeret MacMillans Book – The peacemakers 1919)

The wars (since 1948) in Israel did not cause serious casualties (on either side – as a percentage of the population) and are unlikely to re-occur. Though Israel bombing Syria and Lebanon is not particularly promising.

War, what is it good for? (Except stealing, appropriating and putting countries in their place)

Great Goals, Great Peril

Video of JFK Above Found Here

The Great goal of landing a man on the moon and returning him home safely was born out of fear, but gave America its wings to overcome the Soviet Union.

Great article in the NY Times

Since Apollo 11, the missions to space have been of ever decreasing glory. Though notable in the scientific achievement, they fail to grasp the world and make us look, uin unison, towards the heavens and say “We can”.

The sad state of the United States foreign policy will likely drain prestige from their empire, resources from their nation and put pressure on their debt and currency. The catalyst with may possibly re-awaken America is the successful lunar mission by one of the three nations who have announced suich plans: China, India and Japan – all by 2020.

Just as September 11th woke America up to the Islamic world, space exploration by another nation will wake America from their descent into complacency, lack of investment in non-military technology and political apathy.

You need a very powerful electric prod to move a cow.

The History of Oil

A very interesting way of presenting the history of oil. 45 minutes long, but worth it.

Medicine, a human endeavour

Just read the book “Complications – A surgeon’s notes on an imperfect science” by Atul Gawade. Largely speaking it is about the practice of medicine. Through tightly written stories, it sweeps away many of our preconceived notions of infallible doctors and western medicine. It is absolutely fantastic.

The conclusions I found most pertinent were:

1. Learning

Short bursts with a team who has work history together is better than learning over a spread out timeframe. This is regardless of the skill or intelligence of the person (or group) who is learning.

Learning throughout a career. 75% (or more) of the information and skills you learn in training (school) will be useless. New technology and better practices will inevitably affect you and if you do not continue to learn, you will lose out.

2. Specialization to perfection

The Shouldice hernia clinic in Toronto is the best place in the world to have a hernia operation. This is because that is all they do – hernias – and have thus nearly perfected the process. This treatment of medicine as an industrial process speaks volumes of the possibilities of perfection through repetition.

Anesthesiology has greatly reduced deaths by standardizing medical equipment and practices; removing human intervention and decision making from the process. This may sound undesirable, but in reality if frees up the doctors for more creative thinking. The field of anesthesiology automated their field (thanks to an engineer) much like the airline industry (which is continually improving their safety record).

3. Mental – Physical connection

Obesity and stomach stapling have become part of American culture. After people have their stomach stapled, they still want to eat junk food, but cannot due to physical limitations. After a year or so their actual desire for junk food disappears and they prefer healthy food. This change in appetite goes hand in hand with their loss of weight. The link is between the mental state and physical state is true for most diseases.

4. People want to be told what to do, relinquish responsibility

In a time of increasing awareness of medical diseases and access to information on the web, patients are have become part of the decision making process. Despite this gift, people still want to be told what treatment they should choose. This has more to do with wanting to give up responsibility than anything else. Should something go wrong, it was not their fault. See the book “Stumbling on Happiness”.

5. Cartesian Limitations

Western medicine is based on Cartesian thought – if we know the symptoms, we can find the physical cause, and thus the cure. It is also factored into decision analysis, particularly in business ventures. If I know the risks of decision x and the payoff of the same decision I can calculate the probability of making money. This has been applied to medicine, but it becomes very difficult very quickly. How much do you value a leg, an eye or a life?

Simple cause and effect is very difficult in medicine where so many factors are at play. According to the author of the book, despite the inventions and uses of MRI, CAT scans, and other tools, incorrect medical diagnosis has not decreased in the past 30 years. Scary.

6. Transparency

The ability to openly discuss mistakes and ways to avoid them is absolutely fundamental to improving a system. But because medical practice involves death and harm, this becomes exceedingly difficult to do with pariah lawyers and cautious insurance companies. Yet, it is inevitable, in some ways doctors need to be granted asylum and only prosecuted when a trend of error becomes apparant. Good doctors make mistakes – blame does no one good

Conclusion

Don’t get sick, if you do, trust few.

Favorite quotes from the book:

Talking about free trinkets and medical conferences (pens, pads, stress balls…), “You might think six-figure surgeons would be oblivious to this petty bribery. But you would be wrong.”

And another lesson from trade-shows, “At booths, let people play.”