Global Warming Models are Inherently Flawed
Climatologists and financial modellers share more than we might think, or like. Fundamentally, both climate and financial models propose bold predictions based on highly sophisticated mathematical systems. One has already collapsed and the other will too.
Both the planet’s climate and the financial system are very, very complex beasts. Yet, people in both camps claim an ability to roughly model and predict their behaviour. Nicholas Taleb, a very popular figure these days and author of The Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness, has long prophesized that the mathematical models used in the financial world were useless because of large unpredictable events. The recent crash being a case in point. He calls these unpredictable events “Black Swans”, named after the discovery of black swans in Australia. Traditionally, it was taken for granted that all swans were white because that is all that was ever observed, but surprise, surprise they aren’t. When Europeans travelled to Australia for the first time, they came face to face with an impossibility – a black swan.
Talebs theory stands on the mathematical work of Benoit Mandelbrot, the man who discovered fractal geometry. Fractal geometry (figure below) demonstrates that an apparently simple mathematical formula can generate an infinitely varying pattern of shapes with unpredictable behaviour. It goes on to illustrate how a nearly imperceptible change in the initial conditions can have incalculably large effects on the final outcome. Fractal geometry is self-repeating patterns that grow more and more complex through time, but start from a very basic shape. Here is an example of an equilateral triangle being repeatedly copied to produce a Koch Snowflake.
Fractal geometry is found everywhere in nature. The geometry and size of twigs, trees, and forests are all related through fractal geometry. As are ant colonies, plant distribution, and coral reefs. Human dwellings in Africa, human village size, and other parts of our societies exhibit fractal behaviour. As a brief introduction to fractals, watch the amazing PBS Nova special.
Mandelbrot’s discoveries, led to “Chaos Theory”, popularized in Jurassic Park, and the “Butterfly Effect”. The basic idea is that the flap of a butterfly’s wings changes the air around it and eventually results in a violent tornado on the opposite side of the planet. An apparently inconsequential event can have unforeseen consequences. Sounds crazy, but it is true. It therefore follows that modelling complex, non-linear systems with any degree of accuracy is an activity in self-deception.
The IPCC, financial analysts, and other “modellers” who predict outcomes of complex systems should have their credentials checked. A superficial survey of fractal geometry, chaos theory, shrodinger’s equation, quantum mechanics and complex adaptive systems should trigger alarm bells. Big alarm bells.
There are numerous ecological “Black Swans”, some natural: the eruption of Krakatoa and Mount Tambora, sunspots, tectonic plate shifts; and others human: the discovery of fire, the steam engine, oil, and electricity. Explicitly and simply stated, events and discoveries we are completely incapable of predicting will occur and dramatically alter history. Single events can, and will change everything – we just don’t know what or when.
Imagine yourself in Victorian England, around 1880, as an oxford educated elite with the best education available. Your country controls a good part of the globe and you have read most of the available knowledge. If I were to predict that within 4 generations, man will visit the moon, explore every corner of the earth, have global wireless communication to every living person, regularly fly through the air near the speed of sound and have a black man as world leader; you would call me mad. And yet.
J.B.S. Haldane, the famous geneticist, once said,
I have no doubt that in reality the future will be vastly more surprising than anything I can imagine. Now my own suspicion is that the Universe is not only queerer than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose. Possible Worlds and Other Papers (1927), p. 286
Think about it. If we cannot even suppose how queer our universe is, how can we hope to model and predict its behaviour? A word of caution, I am not saying no models work; models do work with relative accuracy most of the time, but when they fail – they fail miserably. It is therefore unwise to base long term planning for the entire planet on a model that has a high likelihood of falling on its face.
Another way of putting it is that there are known knowns (things we know we know), known unknowns (things we know we don’t know) and the unknown unknowns (and things we don’t know we don’t know).
James Lovelock a fervent environmentalist and father of the Gaia Theory, which claims the Earth behaves like a living organism, has expressed doubts that complex models offer much valuable information.
Lovelock is as provocative as ever. He is withering about the attempt of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to forge a consensus, a word that he says has no place in science: “Just think, over 1,000 of the world’s best climate scientists have worked for 17 years to forecast future climates and have failed to predict the climate of today.” UK Telegraph
Lovelock is correct. Until you can demonstrate that your models from previous years have accurately predicted today, your model is broken.
The New York Times just reported that new studies have halved the estimated sea rise due to Antarctic melting, from 20 feet to 10. The change is due to gravitational effects not previously accounted for in the models. So, the new model has changed the outcome by 50% (or 100% depending on your perspective). Imagine this, I advertise my height as 6 feet on a dating website, I then arrange to meet a beautiful woman for a walk in central park. On Saturday, at the convened time, I meet her, and I am 3 feet tall. She might be disappointed.
This is the inherent problem with any model of a complex system; a tiny oversight can have dramatic effects. And since there are so many unknowns; thousands of tiny oversights are inevitable.
I am not saying we should do nothing – quite the opposite. We should do everything possible to place the odds in our favour: invest in education, challenge the status quo, increase healthcare, and most importantly, invest in ourselves.
Some lament that even if the west changes, China and India will drag the entire planet into an ecological black hole, from which there is no escape. Gandhi even prophetically stated, “God forbid that India should ever take to industrialism after the manner of the west… If our nation took to similar economic exploitation, it would strip the world bare like locusts.”
Yet, environmental issues are not a priority in developing nations because they have more pressing issues, not for a lack of caring. Once their wealth increases sufficiently, they will start to pay attention to the environment – it is already happening. As an analogy, efforts to curb aids in Africa have had mixed results. Different groups advocate for education, abstinence, condoms, antiretroviral drugs, or a combination. Yet, the most effective tool to treat the diseases is increased life expectancy. I know, that smacks of tautology, but hear me out.
If a person thinks they can live to be 40, as opposed to say 25, they will invest in their health, school, and birth control. When you expect to die at 25, you might as well party it up. Get rich, or die tryin’ as 50 Cent says.
When you change the framework a person lives in, the person changes – not the other way around. If we change peoples’ life expectancy, their behaviour will change. The vast majority of countries with improved living conditions, improved health first, then wealth, then the environment. With increased life expectancy, people value the future more and put more emphasis on maintaining their local and global environment for future generations. You need to make people value life; their own, their peers, and that of the natural world.
Too often, environmentalists claim that if everyone were as wealthy as the North Americans, we would need six planets to sustain our lifestyle. This is linearly true, but pragmatically false. Fundamentally, it assumes a static, linear relationship between resource consumption and wealth. Thomas Malthus, a 19th century classical economist, stated, “The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man”. Source A man of the clergy, Malthus saw this relationship between earth and man as divinely imposed to teach virtuous behaviour: he regarded optimistic ideas of social reform as doomed to failure. Two hundred years later, it is clear that the Malthusian approach predicting limited economic growth due to resource scarcity has been proven wrong by consistent growth of the world economy. The lack of empirical evidence for the theory is clear and to promote it undermines the legitimate environmentalist. Malthus and his supporters failed to imagine the transformative power of innovative technology.
Once we agree innovation can release us from the bondage of resource limitations, we can start to move the environmental debate forward. Returning to fractal geometry, recall how a small change can have incredibly large impacts. Who, do let me know, accurately predicted the effects of democracy, the end of slavery, mass produced antibiotics, the splitting of the nucleus, or the power of the semi-conductor?
In conclusion, here are four emerging technologies that will fundamentally change the wealth to consumption ratio of modern society.
- Metal in construction and machinery will be replaced with carbon fibre beams and plates. (Amory Lovins at Stanford)
- The efficiency of solar and energy storage technology will improve in a similar way as semi-conductors did in the 20th century (Moore’s law). (Varia)
- All plastics and packaging will be replaced with bio-degradable materials. (Varia, EU laws, general trends)
- Vertical, high-density farming will allow for near unlimited production of any food we like. (TED talk
by Dickson Despommier, 2009)
None of these breakthroughs will be easy, but each has the power to change everything we take for granted. In all likelihood, something else will happen that no one has predicted. I can’t wait to see what the future holds for us and what we hold for it. It certainly does not forebode a global warming catastrophe.
Other Resources
Climate Engineering (Dust Related)
Daniel B. Botkin in the Wall Street Journal
The Planet is on our hands, deal with it – Wired
Micheal Crichton on Global Warming – Charlie Rose
Brief article casting doubts in EU Carbon Emissions Reductions
Another one on lack of EU Reductions
NIMONIK Posts
Published on May 17, 2009The Law of Evolution
The Theory of Evolution should be changed to the Law of Evolution. The benefit would be immense. No one, save the schizophrenics, tries to argue against the Law of Gravity. Even more obscure laws, such as the Laws of Thermodynamics are agreed upon to be true, without (major) exceptions. It is imperative we push society towards an unconditional acceptance that life (and other things) evolve naturally based on survival mechanisms, we need to change the vocabulary. I propose we change all references to the Theory of Evolution to the Law of Evolution – across school textbooks and in both general scientific and public discourse.
If you quickly read up on basic psychology, neurolinguistics and behavioural economics; you will see the importance of words and behaviour. What and how we say things matters, greatly.
To get the ball rolling, I would propose a petition of sorts that is co-signed by top level scientists and by less known citizens. The petition would be deliver it to book publishers, scientific communities and governments – insisting that all reference to the Theory of Evolution be changed to the Law of Evolution.
Let me know your thoughts on this issue.
Article in Wired on this same idea: http://www.wired.com/techbiz/people/mag … t_thompson
Definition of “Law” from Wikipedia:
A scientific law or scientific principle is a concise verbal or mathematical statement of a relation that is always under the same conditions.
Published on May 4, 2009Immigrants Welcome – Free Domain Names
Two interesting articles came my way today, one from the New York Times explaining the challenges with bringing talented foreigners to the United States to work. The other was an essay advocating for a new type of visa for people who want to found a business.
It seems obvious to me that Canada should open up our borders to talented people from around the world who are prepared to invest their lives in our society. Confusingly, some people think immigration is a zero-sum game. If you bring someone into the country, they will take the job an unemployed Canadian. Really, immigration is anything but a zero-sum game, new businesses mean new jobs, new wealth and new suppliers.
In fact, many of the greatest Canadian businesses were started by immigrants who came for free land; Seagram’s, Magna International, and many others. South of the border, over 50% of Silicon Valley businesses have been started by non-americans, I would imagine the same ratio holds for Canadian businesses.
As such, opening up our borders and offering our technological, legal and physical infrastructure to willing people will undoubtedly bring job and wealth growth. Let us not fool ourselves, at a paltry 35 million people in the second largest country in the world, we still have A Lot of Space. Just as we once offered free land to eastern Europeans willing to farm, we should offer easy visas to people willing to plant their intellectual seed in our nation.
If the world is flat, we should make canada the valley where the water collects – that is where the animals gather to feed.
Published on April 11, 2009Israel – The Night is Darkest before the Dawn
I have spoken my mind on Israel numerous times, notably here, here and here, but the following is perhaps my most comprehensive post.
First, let me state this clearly, I believe in absolutes. There is such a thing as The Truth. We can never be perfectly just nor perfectly true, that would be disingenuous of us – but it is something we can live into, something to constantly strive for. Too often we settle for compromise, we are told “beauty” is in the eye of the beholder, “justice” is relative, and “truth” is hidden – these are stories to help us sleep at night. The most fundamental human truth is very simple: all people have equal rights. Consequently, any situation that violates this rule is unjust.
Ah! But what of the fog of war and the clouds of perception? Merely obstacles to finding the truth and honoring it, not excuses to hide behind. The use of a “comprimise of ideals” is perhaps best illustrated by Israel’s behaviour. They claim to be unable to abide by UN resolutions, the Charter for Human Rights and other protocols because of the threats they face, they are wrong and they are wronging all of us when they say so.
On Israel, emotions are particularly sensitive. From my writings and postings on Israel, I have received much love, a good deal of indifference and too much hate; I hope to convert some of that hate into compassion. Nearly all the indignation against the defense of Palestinian rights, at the perceived expense of Israeli “self-defense”, emanates from good, decent people. In response to negative remark of Israel’s behaviour, the reaction from the Jewish community, without major exception, is a genuine sense of anger and offense. In all other walks of life, these same individuals are kind, generous, and loving, but when it comes to Israel, they quickly become enraged, threatening, and disrespectful of all but their own opinion. It is not their fault. The Israelis and their supporters see the world differently than you and I.
The supporters of Israel have been conditioned. They have been trained to believe that the nation, and its people, are on the constant brink of annihilation – from Hitler, to Iran, to Hamas – they are scared. Similar to America’s overreaction to 9/11, Israel has been in a constant state of convulsion, unable to see what they have done and who they are becoming. A major hurdle to a reasonable agreement between the Israelis, Palestinians and their neighbours is the military culture that has been created in Israel. When every 18 year old child is forced to join in the military, and most see some form of action, they grow up thinking that war is normal. It’s not. The only way to break the culture and conscription is to alleviate the genuine concerns Israelis have for their safety.
Most of Europe had conscription until the 1980s, nearly 35 years after WWII. Once the EU had been established and there were clearly no wars on the horizon, the countries could relax their military systems and effectively remove conscription. It will take a similar amount of time in Israel, but dismantling the military culture will be a fundamental part of and consequence of genuine peace and co-operation with their neighbours. Because of their military culture, Israel sees hatred and threats rather than opportunity or an open hand; in effect, they see the world through emerald glasses. In addition to the European model, the struggle for rightful representation through non-violence in India, South Africa and Segregated America stand as a beacon of light and possible inspiration for the Palestenians.
Remove these glasses and by most lengths of the stick, Israeli citizens share more with their Arab neighbours than they do with Americans, Canadians or Europeans. With their neighbours, they share history, food, culture and most importantly – location. Israelis, in the national sense of the word, are brothers with the Arabs, and cousins with the rest of the world. If we build on this shared heritage, peace is possible.
In the struggle for Indian independence, Gandhi and his followers clearly stated that they were not fighting the British people, but rather The British System. The Israeli System, not so dissimilar, with its external American support, has corrupted its institutions, ideals and principals – to its own detriment. It is the system which must be fought, not the people.
How to fight such a system? I believe in massive non-cooperation and non-violence. Palestinians should refuse to work for Israeli companies, liberal minded citizens of the world should not purchase items which contribute to the construction and growth of the settlements and countries should not sell weapons of agression to Israel. Gandhi laid out his views on Israel and Palestine quite clearly,
“Through these friends I came to learn much of their age-long persecution. They [the Jews] have been the untouchables of Christianity. The parallel between their treatment by Christians and the treatment of untouchables by Hindus is very close. ” … Gandhi went on to say, “The Palestine of the Biblical conception is not geographical tract. It is in their hearts. But if they must look to the Palestine of geography as their national home, it is wrong to enter it under the shadow of the British gun. A religious act cannot be performed with the aid of the bayonet or the bomb. They can settle in Palestine only by the goodwill of the Arabs. They should seek to convert the Arab heart. The same God rules the Arab heart, who rules the Jewish heart. … Let the Jews who claim to be the chosen race prove their title by choosing the way of non-violence for vindicating their position on earth. Every country is their home including Palestine, not by aggression but by loving service.”
Published in Harijan on November 26, 1938
A fundamental tenet of Gandhi’s philosophy is the extraction from the past, forgiveness of your enemy and the triumph of love over fear. The Palestinians and their supporters must be just and show Israel how wrong it is. Israel must be shamed into accepting the equality of the Palestenians and Israel must step out from it’s historical context into the modern, international, world. Avraham Burg, former Knesset speaker, has written a wise and timely book title, “The Holocaust is Over; We must Rise from It’s Ashes“. His main thesis is that Israel and her supporters lean on the Holocaust, pogroms, wars, suicide bombs and other traumatic events as a reason not to act and an immunity against criticism. They live in the past and cannot move forward. He goes on to say that whenever criticism is brought up against Israel, it is placed against the backdrop of the holocaust – making it more palatable. When he stated his objections to the Gaza war, his Israeli friends replied, “It’s not the holocaust!”, of course not. And in contrast to it, the Gaza war seems moderate. To break the cycle of violence, the current conflict must be removed from the historical context.
Too often, the defenders of Israel state proudly, “Israel is the only democracy in the region, the only country to tolerate a pluralistic society and defend women’s rights” and then expect that this somehow excuses them from their gross abuses of international and human rights law. There are numerous democracies that have descended into folly, democracy guarantees neither a healthy or just society and does not offer a shield cloak against criticism and legal prosecution, if anything being democratic means the people are responsible for the government. Let us pause and think about what the Israeli system has become.
Imagine what could have been. Israel, a home to the jewish people, victims of terrible crimes, could have been a beacon of hope, tolerance and peace. It could have stood up for the people in Rwanda, the Tibetans, the people in Darfur, the blacks in segregated America, the monks in Burma, and the black South Africans during Apartheid. That would have been a noble state indeed. Imagine, what could have been and what can still be, if only we try with all our hearts.
Notes.
Below is an interview concerning the book by Avraham Burg:
In fact, their is little anthropological evidence to support a genetic Diaspora, the Jewish faith spread around the Meditaranean basin, not the people (Source).
See this interesting BBC debate that degenerates into Alan Dershowitz calling Michael Scheuer a bigot. Avraham Burg, same mentioned above, and Dore Gold, a former Israeli ambassador to the UN (Likud), were also present at the heated debate.
Further Suggested Readings:
The Fateful Triangle – Noam Chomsky
A Defense of Israel – Alan Dershowitz
Peace, Not Apartheid – Jimmy Carter
From Beirut to Jerusalem – Thomas Friedman
All the Articles I have posted to Facebook since January 1st, 2009 as of April 8th, 2009:
Op-Ed Columnist – Israel Cries Wolf – NYTimes.com
Op-Ed Contributor – Israel on Trial – NYTimes.com
BBC NEWS | Middle East | New support for West Bank outpost
Palestinians serenade survivors in Israel – International Herald Tribune
How some military rabbis are trying to radicalize Israeli soldiers. – By Christopher Hitchens – Slat
Soldiers’ accounts of Gaza killings raise furor in Israel – International Herald Tribune
The Palestinian Perspective: What the World Looks Like from the West Bank an…
Israel has plans for 73,000 settlement homes | Reuters
The novelist in wartime | Salon Books
Reflections of War – 14 Feb 09 – Part 1
Obama, take away the pain in my stomach
Charlie Rose – A conversation with Jimmy Carter
Carter’s One Regret – The Daily Beast
www.zcommunications.org– Chomsky on the recent War on Gaza
Edge: HOW WORDS COULD END A WAR By Scott Atran & Jeremy Ginges
globeandmail.com: Anti-Arab sentiment swells among youth in aftermath of Gaza war
Eyeless in Gaza – The New York Review of Books
Palestinian Astrophysicist in US Recounts How His 11-Year-Old Son Died in a Israeli Warplane Bombing
Gazan Doctor and Peace Advocate Loses 3 Daughters to Israeli Fire and Asks Why – NYTimes.com
Charlie Rose – An update on Gaza
Richard Silverstein: The Israeli foreign ministry itself is asking volunteers to flood news websites
Israeli strike on UN headquarters in Gaza a ‘total disaster’: UN director
King Abdullah bin Al-Hussein (1882-1951)
Pro-Israel Against Gaza…Max Blumenthal
Israeli public broadly backs the war against Gaza – International Herald Tribune
Naomi Klein: Enough. It’s time for a boycott of Israel | Comment is free | The Guardian
BILL MOYERS JOURNAL | Bill Moyers on Mideast Violence | PBS
Robert Fisk’s World: Wherever I go, I hear the same tired Middle East comparisons – Robert Fisk, Com
Charlie Rose – A conversation with Bob Simon
Israeli / Palestinian Coffin Counter
BBC NEWS | Middle East | Propaganda war: trusting what we see?
Published on April 9, 2009People like the status quo
Quote of the Day:
Conventional people are roused to fury by departures from convention, largely because they regard such departures as a criticism of themselves – Bertrand Russell
Published on April 6, 2009